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Invasion probabilities, hitting times, and some fluctuation theory for the stochastic logistic process

机译:入侵概率,命中时间和一些波动理论   随机物流过程

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摘要

We consider excursions for a class of stochastic processes describing apopulation of discrete individuals experiencing density-limited growth, suchthat the population has a finite carrying capacity and behaves qualitativelylike the classical logistic model when the carrying capacity is large. Beingdiscrete and stochastic, however, our population nonetheless goes extinct infinite time. We present results concerning the maximum of the population priorto extinction in the large population limit, from which we obtain establishmentprobabilities and upper bounds for the process, as well as estimates for thewaiting time to establishment and extinction. As a consequence, we show thatconditional upon establishment, the stochastic logistic process will with highprobability greatly exceed carrying capacity an arbitrary number of times priorto extinction.
机译:我们考虑一类随机过程的漂移,该过程描述了离散个体的种群,这些个体正在经历密度受限的增长,从而使种群具有有限的承载能力,并且当承载能力较大时,其行为类似于经典的逻辑模型。然而,由于离散且随机,我们的人口在无限时间内灭绝。我们提出了有关大种群灭绝之前最大种群灭绝的结果,从中我们可以得出建立概率和该过程的上限,以及对建立和灭绝等待时间的估计。结果,我们证明了在建立的条件下,随机物流过程将以极高的概率大大超过灭绝之前的任意数量的承载能力。

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    Parsons, Todd L.;

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